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(May 4, 2005)
The
results of LinuxDevices.com's fifth annual Embedded Linux Market Survey
are in! This brief summary outlines our interpretation of a few key data
points. Overall, we find the results encouraging for embedded Linux, and
for companies in the embedded Linux OS and tools market.
This year, our survey drew 775 respondents, or 175 more than last year.
This alone shows that interest in embedded Linux continues to grow, a
fact also reflected by the growing readership attracted by our Website
and opt-in newsletter.
As we did last year, we encourage readers to draw their own conclusions
from the
complete survey response data. Last year's (2004) complete
data and
summary findings are also available for comparison, along
with those from years past and many other market research reports (see
"For further research" section below).
Please note that while we make every effort to increase result validity
by limiting responses to a single submission per IP address, respondents
are self-selected, and we have minimal control over multiple or
dishonest voting. Additionally, our market share results are not meant
to reflect upon the commercial success of individual companies. For
commercial marketshare figures, LinuxDevices.com recommends
VDC,
EDC,
IDC,
ABI, and
Gartner, among
other capable sources.
And now, our observations . . .
Linux on strong uptake
curve in embedded
Our 2003 survey found that 33 percent of respondents used embedded Linux
in their (or their company's) products during the past two years, while
49 percent expected to within two years. This year, 43 percent say they
have used Linux, while 55 expect to. Linux use in embedded continues to
swell dramatically.
Which OSes have been
in your (or company's) embedded systems during the past 2 years?
Which will be used during the next two?
In second place, Windows
adoption is also up, growing from 13 percent in 2003 to 16 percent in
2005. It's interesting to note that the expectation of future Windows
use has consistently rated below past use in each of the last three
years, suggesting that LinuxDevices readers may wish to
move away from Microsoft's embedded OSes.
Unsurprisingly, our annual reader surveys have always shown a high
expectation of future Linux use in embedded projects. However, 2005
marks the first year that actual Linux use really seems to be catching
up with the optimism behind embedded Linux, as indicated in the
following graph.
Actual and projected Linux use, over the last five years
ARM now top embedded
processor architecture
Last year's survey suggested
that more embedded Linux developers expected to base projects on ARM
than on x86 processors during the next two years. That expectation was
realized this year, with 31 percent reporting using ARM in recent
designs, compared to 28 percent using x86. Additionally, enthusiasm for
ARM remains high, with 32 percent expecting to use ARM in future designs
during the coming two years, compared with 24 percent for x86.
What CPUs were used in
your embedded projects during the past two years? Which will be used
during the next two?
Despite being relegated to
second place, x86 remains a popular architecture, used by 28 percent of
respondents, up very slightly from last year. With the exception of ARM
and x86, every other processor architecture had slightly lower usage
this year than last.
We asked about DSPs (digital signal processors) for the first time this
year, and a surprising 5 percent reported using DSPs as the primary
processor, with 6 percent planning to.
Linux DSP ports emerged only recently, but seem to be making
a strong start, possibly driven by the low cost of DSPs compared to
traditional processors.
Commercial Linux providers
gaining marketshare
Last year, we asked our readers where they obtained the Linux OS that
they used in their embedded designs, and only 21 percent cited "embedded
Linux vendors." This year, 25 percent reported getting their Linux from
an embedded Linux vendor, such as MontaVista, Koan, Sysgo, Denx,
Metrowerks, FSMLabs, LynuxWorks, Wind River, or TimeSys.
Similarly, 24 percent of last year's respondents said they expected to
source Linux from an embedded Linux vendor during the coming two years,
while this year, 31 percent expect to.
Where respondents
obtained their embedded Linux OSes during the past two years. Where
they expect to get them during the next two years
Quantifying the number of
developers paying for embedded Linux distributions is tricky,
however, because many commercial Linux distributors also offer
unsupported free distributions. Thus, the percentage of respondents
using commercial tools may more accurately reflect the proportion of
paying and non-paying embedded Linux developers.
In that regard, about 30 percent of respondents said they expect to use
tools provided by embedded Linux vendors -- a similar percentage to the
25 percent who reported sourcing Linux from embedded Linux vendors in
recent projects and 30 percent who say they plan to.
What development tools are you most likely to use?
This further supports the conclusion that roughly a third of embedded
Linux developers expect to make use of products obtained from
commercial embedded Linux providers, while two-thirds are likely to
turn to non-commercial or non-embedded sources for their Linux OSes.
MontaVista -- the eight
percent gorilla
Among LinuxDevices
readers who cited an embedded Linux vendor as their source for
Linux, nearly a third cited MontaVista, making it the most popular
embedded Linux vendor, currently.
Usage of distributions
from embedded Linux vendors, during the past two years and the next
two years
However, among all
LinuxDevices readers who reported using Linux in embedded
designs, only eight percent cited MontaVista, putting it well behind
Debian, Home-Grown (assembled from freely downloadable, non-commercial
sources), OpenEmbedded, and Red Hat, as indicated in the following
graph.
What forms of Linux
have been in your (company's) embedded systems during the past two
years? Which do you plan to use during the next two?
Taken as a whole, the
embedded Linux landscape seems most noteworthy for the large variety of
popular sourcing options, rather than for the dominance of any single
vendor or organization. This suggests that Linux continues to deliver on
the promise of vendor neutrality and absence of vendor lock-in, and that
embedded Linux technology remains adequately decoupled from the fortunes
or failings of any single company or organization.
Distribution of
responses among Non-commercial, commercial-embedded, and
commercial-standard Linux alternatives
As seen above, non-commercial
options were identified as the current or future preference by over half
of the survey's participants using Linux in embedded applications. The
following graph takes a closer look at the non-commercial alternatives.
Usage of distributions
from non-commercial sources, during the past two years and the next
two years
The OpenEmbedded project
appears to be a notable up-and-comer, ranking second only to Debian
among non-commercial Linux sources on its first year on our survey. Part
of OpenEmbedded's popularity may have derived from an unfortunate
mailing list post encouraging users to vote. However, there's no doubt
the
project has momentum. It began as the
OpenZaurus project, and then evolved into a cross-platform
build system supporting a wide variety of embedded targets.
Real-time on the rise
It would be hard to look at
the charts from the previous observation and not notice the rising
fortunes of real-time Linux specialist FSMLabs. Enthusiam appears to be
very high for the company, with nearly 8 percent expecting to use its
RTLinuxPro, or RTLinux (which is free for use in designs licensed under
the GNU GPL), in projects during the next two years. FSMLabs
said in September of 2003, when it released RTLinuxPro 2.0,
that major ease-of-use improvements would greatly expand its market
prospects, a prophesy that could stand to come true, if our reader
survey results are indicative of actual trends.
Another remarkable result is the emergence of Italian real-time
specialist Koan, which was included in our survey for the first time.
Koan was the second most popular source of Linux, among commercial
suppliers cited by LinuxDevices readers. Like FSMLabs, Koan
sells a real-time Linux variant -- KLinux (Koan also distributes a free
version of KLinux, but without the real-time extensions).
Meanwhile, among non-commercial sources of Linux, RTAI emerged as a
popular choice used by a reported four percent of LinuxDevices
readers in its first year on our survey.
Support more appealing
than royalties
MontaVista surprised the
embedded Linux industry by
announcing it expected to earn half its revenues through
royalty-based licensing. However, developer seat and support licensing
remains the norm in the embedded Linux market, with 72 percent or
respondents reporting they would NOT consider paying royalties, while 56
percent said they WOULD consider paying for support.
 
Left: Would you
consider paying per-unit royalties? Right: Would you consider paying
for development services/support?
Additional findings
The findings above are merely
the most salient results, in our view, of this year's reader survey. The
complete results also reflect our readers's opinions and
habits with regard to the quality of available development tools,
potential legal threats faced by Linux, open source licensing due
diligence procedures, the size of companies using embedded Linux, what
embedded Linux is being used for, and more.
Take a look at the complete data set, and let us know what YOU find
interesting, using the Talkback thread below.
Talk back!
Share your response to our observations above, or post your own analysis
based on our
complete response data:
Discuss the survey results
For Further Research
Research findings from industry analysts:
Reports and data from past
LinuxDevices.com surveys:
Other related stories:
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